Post by blackandgold on Jan 6, 2013 12:01:28 GMT -5
I used to post and write about Summit League "tempo-free" standings each week when I was blogging about the league last year, and though I'm not blogging it anymore, I am keeping track of them and will share as time allows for any interested people.
Teams are ranked by their "efficiency margin," or by how much they are outscoring their league opponents after adjusting for tempo. I adjust for tempo because I believe raw scores don't tell us much since teams play at different paces. For example, a typical Western Illinois game features 10-12 fewer possessions per team than an Oakland game. If a team scored a two-pointer on 50 percent of those extra 12 possessions, that's 12 points. So a WIU defense that holds a team to 60 points in a game would be equivalent to an OU defense that holds a team to 72 points in a game. That's why I use "points per possession" stats.
NDSU is very intriguing on a number of fronts. They have straight-up decimated their opponents on BOTH ends of the court. They have done similar damage to non-conference opponents. On one hand, these scoring margins are major predictors of future success. They have just destroyed their weaker opponents, which is what great teams do. On the other hand, as I look at NDSU's schedule I can not find a quality win. The Youngstown State win is close. The SDSU win doesn't rate as "quality" right now, unfortunately, but may by the end fo the year. That said, the Bison only have one "bad" loss, which came at Green Bay. I'm very eager to watch them versus Oakland next weekend because I just haven't seen enough of them yet. On paper, one thing that stands out most is they are finally feeding Marshall Bjorklund at a rate he has shown he is deserving of since his freshman year. Bjorklund's usage rate is at an all-time high, and yet there are no signs that his efficiency has dropped at all (usually there is an inverse relationship between usage rate and efficiency, and when players can reverse this, they are special). His statistical player comparisons going back to his freshman year indicated that he would not suffer much of an efficiency dip if his role increased, and that is playing out this year. Dude is making 70 percent of his frequent shot attempts. Perhaps the biggest change, though, has been that they have cut down on their turnovers in league play. That was the major fault of last year's NDSU team, and this year they have that under control so far.
NDSU's really the only team standing out right now based on so few results. It's very early to evaluate these standings, especially since Oakland and IPFW have played one or two less games that most other teams.
That said, it is pretty clear that UMKC, IUPUI, and Omaha are not good. The top 4-or-5 teams in the league should go 6-0 against those three, no excuses.
Teams are ranked by their "efficiency margin," or by how much they are outscoring their league opponents after adjusting for tempo. I adjust for tempo because I believe raw scores don't tell us much since teams play at different paces. For example, a typical Western Illinois game features 10-12 fewer possessions per team than an Oakland game. If a team scored a two-pointer on 50 percent of those extra 12 possessions, that's 12 points. So a WIU defense that holds a team to 60 points in a game would be equivalent to an OU defense that holds a team to 72 points in a game. That's why I use "points per possession" stats.
NDSU is very intriguing on a number of fronts. They have straight-up decimated their opponents on BOTH ends of the court. They have done similar damage to non-conference opponents. On one hand, these scoring margins are major predictors of future success. They have just destroyed their weaker opponents, which is what great teams do. On the other hand, as I look at NDSU's schedule I can not find a quality win. The Youngstown State win is close. The SDSU win doesn't rate as "quality" right now, unfortunately, but may by the end fo the year. That said, the Bison only have one "bad" loss, which came at Green Bay. I'm very eager to watch them versus Oakland next weekend because I just haven't seen enough of them yet. On paper, one thing that stands out most is they are finally feeding Marshall Bjorklund at a rate he has shown he is deserving of since his freshman year. Bjorklund's usage rate is at an all-time high, and yet there are no signs that his efficiency has dropped at all (usually there is an inverse relationship between usage rate and efficiency, and when players can reverse this, they are special). His statistical player comparisons going back to his freshman year indicated that he would not suffer much of an efficiency dip if his role increased, and that is playing out this year. Dude is making 70 percent of his frequent shot attempts. Perhaps the biggest change, though, has been that they have cut down on their turnovers in league play. That was the major fault of last year's NDSU team, and this year they have that under control so far.
NDSU's really the only team standing out right now based on so few results. It's very early to evaluate these standings, especially since Oakland and IPFW have played one or two less games that most other teams.
That said, it is pretty clear that UMKC, IUPUI, and Omaha are not good. The top 4-or-5 teams in the league should go 6-0 against those three, no excuses.