Post by blackandgold on Jan 5, 2014 22:36:23 GMT -5
After Horizon League home teams went 4-0 on the first night of league play, I posted something about my own realization of road wins being unusually tough in this league, and I have read that on other teams' forums. Then the first three games on Saturday went 3-0 for the home teams, seemingly adding more confirmation to that realization. Finally, Cleveland State broke the trend by dominating Milwaukee on its home court in the final game of the night. Today I put together a simple chart showing the home team win percentage over the last 10 years, showing Horizon side-by-side with Summit. I got these from KenPom.com (saving a lot of time!), and it reveals that things haven't been all that different between the two leagues.
** Note that KenPom's computer said there were 91 home games in the Horizon's 2009 season, which seems like an error, but otherwise the numbers seem trustworthy.
Given this history, I'd bet that the HL's Home Win% will again finish right around 60% in 2013-14, but we have let the early results shape a narrative of road games thus far. This is not a comment on the level of competition between the two leagues (no question there), just that road wins more or less happen the same percentage of time in both leagues. Granted, this could be one of those crazy years where the parity is such that every team protects home court at another level, but history suggests 2-3 teams will rise above the crop and get 4-5 road wins in league play. Hopefully Oakland is one of those teams, or at the least one of the teams that doesn't let those 2-3 top teams win at the O'rena!
** Note that KenPom's computer said there were 91 home games in the Horizon's 2009 season, which seems like an error, but otherwise the numbers seem trustworthy.
Given this history, I'd bet that the HL's Home Win% will again finish right around 60% in 2013-14, but we have let the early results shape a narrative of road games thus far. This is not a comment on the level of competition between the two leagues (no question there), just that road wins more or less happen the same percentage of time in both leagues. Granted, this could be one of those crazy years where the parity is such that every team protects home court at another level, but history suggests 2-3 teams will rise above the crop and get 4-5 road wins in league play. Hopefully Oakland is one of those teams, or at the least one of the teams that doesn't let those 2-3 top teams win at the O'rena!