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Post by Grizzfan1 on Mar 14, 2024 19:42:28 GMT -5
Some wild tourney games going on this week.
That's the really fun part of winning your league tourney and going to the NCAA's. Being able to scoreboard watch and look for upsets to see if OU can possibly get a better seeding.
Coach Drew's Loyola Rambler's lost a heartbreaker to St. Bonaventure 75-74 in Overtime.
Toledo lost again for the fourth year in a row after winning the regular season and having the #1 seed. Lost to Kent State 67-59.
Man and we all thought OU was snake bitten in March.
Western Michigan and Central Michigan lost today to Ohio and Bowling Green so it looks like it will be just OU and MSU representing the state of Michigan in the Big Dance.
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Post by blackandgold on Mar 15, 2024 9:41:11 GMT -5
For Oakland to get beyond the 14 seed line, we need to be rooting for the following over the next three days:
- UMASS Lowell beat Vermont in America East title game. No small feat as I think the game will be on campus at Vermont. Game is tomorrow at 11:00 am. Always a fun watch to kick off Saturday of championship week.
- Big West semis are today. UC Irvine is the heavy favorite and currently projects as a 13 seed. Root for LBSU to defeat UC Irvine, or if UC Irvine wins, then either Hawaii or UC Davis to win in the finals tomorrow. I believe either of those three teams would firmly be a 14 or worse, below Oakland on the S-Curve.
- In the MAC, we need Akron to lose either today in the semi finals or tomorrow in the final. Akron is the strongest of the four semi finalists and would be ahead of OU on the curve. Akron plays Ohio today. BGSU plays Kent State. I’m rooting for BGSU and first year coach Todd Simon, a Mid-Michigan native who did a heckuva job at Southern Utah, a very hard place to win. I also think BGSU would slot no higher than a 14 seed below OU on the seed listing.
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Post by blackandgold on Mar 16, 2024 15:13:58 GMT -5
UC Irvine got knocked out but Vermont won. Even if Akron is upset by Kent State tonight, I don’t think that’s enough to move Oakland to a 13. But it should mean there’s no chance Oakland falls to a 15.
Right now, the consensus 3-seeds are Baylor, Creighton, Kentucky, and Duke. So we have a 50-50 chance of facing a blue blood. If Duke, it seems assured that game would be in Brooklyn (the Committee loves to send Duke to NYC/Brooklyn), although there is a location in Charlotte that would make sense (but UNC would be there most likely).
There is also a site in Omaha but I’m not sure if there is a bracket rule against playing in one’s home arena (which would be the case for Creighton).
My bet is Oakland is playing Kentucky. Reed Sheppard is the son of two UK basketball legends and having a storybook freshman year. The parallels to Trey Townsend are an obvious storyline. Plus, Calipari and Kampe have a long-standing relationship, and the shared history of being dribble drive offense adopters. I know the Committee doesn’t do “storylines” when bracketing, but the fact is we always end up with a few like this that have stories beyond the game. If this happens, I’m hopeful we’ll be in Calipari’s hometown of Pittsburgh. Not a bad drive for Oakland contingent.
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Post by blackandgold on Mar 16, 2024 21:43:09 GMT -5
Akron beats Kent State in amazing finals game that featured one of those crazy moments Coach Kampe has talked about where the dumbest things happen under the pressure. Kent State got a 1 point lead with about five seconds to go. Akron quickly inbounded and a guard for KSU committed an immediate foul like he thought they were down. The KSU coach was apoplectic on the sideline and once it hit the guard, he was seen crying and raising his hands in the air on the sideline. Akron made both free throws and KSU missed the last shot to win it. Just feel terrible for that guard tonight!
On another note, happy for Akron. I didn’t know the story of Enrique Freeman. I believe they said he started as a walk on and was named MAC POTY this year. He stayed at Akron though no doubt he could have got paid elsewhere. He’s been a walking double double for three years and this year averaged 19 pts, 13 rebounds per game. Awesome story.
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Post by blackandgold on Mar 16, 2024 22:21:22 GMT -5
Two stories that give hope in this transfer portal and NIL era.
Saint Peter’s is back in the NCAA Tournament out of the MAAC, two years since their 2022 Elite Eight run. The roster has only one player remaining from that team, who played only 1 minute in their four game run that year. Entirely different team and coach from 2022. But they are back.
Morehead State won the OVC tournament. This is not the OVC of yesteryear. It’s been gutted by realignment. But Morehead State gets back to the tourney for first time since 2021, when it had an up and coming 6’10 center named Johni Broome, who had a Keith Benson like impact, only he did it from day one. He stayed at MSU one more year before transferring to Auburn, where he was First Team All-SEC this year. Despite losing such a huge piece, Coach Preston Spradlin got his Eagles back, and only one player remains from that 2021 team. A guard who barely played that year and is now a reliable starting point guard.
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Post by blackandgold on Mar 16, 2024 23:12:45 GMT -5
There is one bracketologist out of 122 that has Oakland as a 13 seed, but the consensus is firmly a 14 (the second best 14 seed for now).
Interestingly, there are actually two scenarios left that could jump Oakland to the 13 line.
The AAC title game is UAB vs Temple, which is on a miraculous run. This game is just a few weeks removed from a game in which UAB beat Temple 100-72 in Philly, where UAB outrebounded Temple 41-19. The game was so lopsided and there was apparently a ton of movement on the game’s betting lines the day of the game, there was an investigation opened up into the game and possible nefarious activity going on. Not sure that has concluded, but safe to say it is really crazy to be here with a Temple team that was 5-13 in the AAC in the title game. Temple has an overall losing record, close to 200 in NET, and 180 in KenPom. UAB projects as a 12 seed, so I’d have to believe Temple would be at least a 15 if it wins tomorrow.
In the Ivy League, it has long been thought either Princeton (66th in KenPom and a Cinderella last year) or Yale (81 in KenPom) would win the bid, but Princeton got upset by Brown today. Brown is on a 7 game winning streak, but overall record is 13-17, 190ish in NET and KenPom. Yale is projected as a 12 seed, so if Brown beats Yale, safe to say Brown is more like a 15 seed.
In summary, go Brown and Temple, and Oakland has an outside shot at a 13 seed.
Unfortunately, the current consensus four seed grouping is daunting: Auburn and Alabama, which have among the highest upsides in the country, Kansas, and Illinois. We can’t play Illinois (or at least I don’t think they would do that since we played in regular season). Personally, if Auburn is a 4, I’d rather be a 14. Auburn is ranked 4th in KenPom and 5th in the NET. Auburn has a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, which is usually one the hallmarks of a championship contender. Auburn’s profile is probably bogged down by 1-7 record in Quad 1 games. But to me, Auburn as a 4 (or even a 3) is Oakland-Texas 13/4 all over again—not fair to whatever team is slotted against them as an underseeded 4.
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Post by Grizzfan1 on Mar 16, 2024 23:16:21 GMT -5
Two stories that give hope in this transfer portal and NIL era. Saint Peter’s is back in the NCAA Tournament out of the MAAC, two years since their 2022 Elite Eight run. The roster has only one player remaining from that team, who played only 1 minute in their four game run that year. Entirely different team and coach from 2022. But they are back. Morehead State won the OVC tournament. This is not the OVC of yesteryear. It’s been gutted by realignment. But Morehead State gets back to the tourney for first time since 2021, when it had an up and coming 6’10 center named Johni Broome, who had a Keith Benson like impact, only he did it from day one. He stayed at MSU one more year before transferring to Auburn, where he was First Team All-SEC this year. Despite losing such a huge piece, Coach Preston Spradlin got his Eagles back, and only one player remains from that 2021 team. A guard who barely played that year and is now a reliable starting point guard. St. Peter's beat the higher seeded Fairfield. Not sure what the league RPI is for that league but I like to think that keeps OU out of the 15 seed and firmly in the 14 seed range at worst. Still holding out for a 13 seed but that is looking unlikely after today's slate of championship games. Currently UT-Arlington is in a close one with Grand Canyon who I believe is sitting in a 13 or 14 range themselves. Hoping UT-Arlington can pull the upset.
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Post by blackandgold on Mar 16, 2024 23:26:23 GMT -5
Currently UT-Arlington is in a close one with Grand Canyon who I believe is sitting in a 13 or 14 range themselves. Hoping UT-Arlington can pull the upset. I missed that potentiality in above post just now. So, on Bracket Matrix, GCU is a solid 12 seed. They had a great year and hovering around 50 in the NET. UTA is below Oakland in the NET, but has higher KenPom by about 20 spots. If they beat GCU, they’ll get their first Quad 1 win and probably jump a few spots in the NET and Ken Pom at the same time, preserving at least a 13 seed, most likely slightly ahead of Oakland on the curve, but it definitely wouldn’t hurt our chances, even though all things equal I’d be rooting for Bryce Drew in this game.
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Post by Grizzfan1 on Mar 17, 2024 1:04:50 GMT -5
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Post by Grizzfan1 on Mar 17, 2024 17:23:58 GMT -5
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